As the economy slows, the credit crunch tightens the money supply, and boomers retire, there will be less money available for investing. This is a cyclical crash that occurs once in a generation. Once the crisis occurs, a whole generation becomes risk-averse and much more careful with money.
Odds are good that this is a major buying global opportunity. As crazy as it feels, the time to start overweighting equities is now, when they are below their historical trend. As we noted last week, stocks still aren't screamingly cheap: After previous bubbles of this magnitude, they have collapsed to below 50% of trend value, which, for US stocks, would be about 5,000 on the DOW (read more here). Unless we are Japan, however, the current prices should provide a compelling long-term return. And, again, the very effectively disguised good news about Japan is that it is so unusual. Japan also peaked at a valuation level that we believe is unprecedented for a major market.
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